Markets are trading higher across the board this morning with wheat catching a bid to return to the highs from earlier in the week as fund re-allocation money-flow is driving a lot of trade early in the month of May.
Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net sellers of 6k corn to drop the net long to 91k, net buyers of 4k beans to push the net long to 34k, and net even in the wheat to leave the net short at 100k.
USDA soybean crush for March came in at 207 mbu (205.5 expected).
French wheat ratings were steady on the week at 74% g/e, which is up from 63% a year ago at this time. Corn planting was 62% vs. 63% on average.
New developments in the U.S./China trade war are limited with conflicting reports coming representatives on both sides.
The UN FAO reported higher global food prices in April, driven by higher cereal, meat, and dairy products that were partially offset by lower sugar and veg oil prices.
The USDA attache in Canada estimated a 2% increase in total grain production for 2025, driven by a 2.2% increase in planted area.
Corn posted a higher high and higher low on Thursday, but prices pulled back from intraday highs to finish with losses. The market is oversold after recent losses with prices hovering within the trading range that we’ve seen for the last few months. There is support for July at 4.70 and resistance 4.97.
Beans posted a lower low and lower high on Thursday, but prices recovered from intraday lows to finish the day higher. The market is balanced with directional indicators neutral. Support is at 10.40 and resistance 10.60.
Corn is on track to finish the week with losses as a lack of problems for Brazil’s 2nd corn crop and a generally favorable start to the U.S. growing season have weighed. U.S. old crop export demand continues to be robust, which is expected to supportive for old crop prices into the summer. With all of that in mind, producers should use option structures to establish floor prices for unsold new crop bushels that reduce downside exposure while keeping the upside open in the event we see a seasonal move higher into mid-summer.
Beans made a solid recovery from lows yesterday as support at 10.40 held. The USDA crush report was a little stronger than expected, but bean oil stocks came in well-above expectations, which is weighing on that market this morning. With South American supplies flowing into global channels and global bean stocks forecast record large, there is downside risk in old crop beans. Producers should buy puts on unsold old crop bushels.
Corn up 2-4
Beans up 3-4