Markets are trading higher across the board this morning, led by the beans as the mid-week move to new lows was overdone and the market found good support near 9.50 basis January futures.
Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net buyers of 5k corn to push the net long back out to 155k, net buyers of 6k beans to reduce the net short to 80k, and net sellers of 5k wheat to push the net short out to 83k.
The most recent government funding bill had price and disaster support for producers, but removed the portion that would allow year-round E-15. It’s probably a non-event at this point as the bill didn’t pass anyways.
Russia lowered their wheat export quota for the 2nd half of the 2024/25 marketing year to 10.6 mmt. The export quota is now down 62% from last year as the country continues to fight inflation following their short wheat crop last year.
Another vessel carrying Russian wheat is enroute to Egypt, which was delayed after the purchase was made in September.
The U.S.$ is pulling back this morning, but it remains at the highest levels since 2022, which has weighed especially on the wheat market.
China customs data showed Brazil soybean imports in Nov. were down 25% from a year ago while US bean arrivals were up by 500 tmt to 2.79 relative to last year.
Technical trends have corn with a neutral bias, beans in a downtrend, and wheat in a downtrend.
Corn posted a bullish reversal from lows yesterday and is seeing follow-through buying this morning with the market working into the upper end of the recent range. Directional indicators are neutral. Support is near 4.30 and resistance 4.50.
Beans posted a bullish reversal from lows on Thursday with prices seeing follow-through buying this morning. The market is correcting from oversold. Support is 9.50 and resistance 9.80.
OUTLOOK
Corn is recovering to the upper end of its recent trading range as the spill overselling from beans has eased and a focus has shifted to strong corn demand and dryness in Argentina. With that said, supplies are still viewed as adequate with selling interest expected to emerge as the market approaches the 4.50 area.
Beans hit long-term support yesterday and the market was able to bounce. We’re seeing follow-through this morning as the market corrects within the downtrend. Dryness in Argentina is supportive, but we probably need to see a major problem emerge in Brazil for the outlook for growing global supplies to change. Look for March beans to struggle to trade through the 9.80 area.
Corn up 2-3
Beans up 6-9