Posted on:
December 17, 2024

Markets are trading mixed this morning with corn and wheat seeing small gains while the beans are seeing follow-through after yesterday’s soft close. 

Managed funds to start the week were estimated as buyers of 4k corn to push the net long to 160k, net sellers of 5k beans to push the net short to 67k, and net sellers of 1k wheat to push the net short to 73k.

NOPA crush was a new record for the month of November but came in at 193.185 mbu (196.7 expected). Oil stocks were 1.084b lbs (1.123 expected).

Ukraine killed a top Russian general in Moscow overnight, which would suggest tensions between the two countries are not ready to cool.

France’s farm ministry said 2025 soft wheat area would increase by 8.7% from last year, but they also said area would be down slightly from the 5-year average.

Paris wheat prices hit the highest levels since late October on the area news as well as results from the large Saudi Arabian wheat purchase yesterday.

Morocco said they would keep milling wheat subsidies for milling wheat imports in place until April as drought is expected to lead to increased imports.

Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and higher close to start the week with the market bouncing within its range. Directional indicators are neutral with overbought/sold indicators balanced. Support is 4.44 and resistance 4.50.

Beans posted lower lows, lower highs, and the lowest close for Jan. futures since November as the market dropped to the bottom of its recent range again. The market is oversold. Jan. support is 9.80 and resistance 10.00.

Corn is trading near the middle of its recent range with strong demand and fund buying providing support while the weak soybean market is providing some spillover selling to weigh. With the uptick we saw in farmer selling when prices got to 4.50 last week, look for corn to continue its range-bound trade. Producers can look at zero-cost option strategies to protect downside exposure in the near-term.

Beans dropped to recent lows yesterday as Brazilian weather continues to be favorable. With repeated tests of long-term support near 9.80, the market is expected to begin another leg lower. Producers should use puts to protect unsold bushels.

 

Corn mixed

Beans down 5-7