Markets are trading higher this morning, with wheat catching a bid again and buyers stepping in after pausing the last two days after closing higher for five consecutive days.

Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net sellers of 5k corn to push the net short out to 302k, net sellers of 8k beans to push the net short to 185k, and net sellers of 1k wheat to push the net short to 72k.

French wheat ratings continued their trend lower, with the crop now rated 48% g/e, which was down from 50% last week. Harvest is 88% complete vs. 91% on average.

The French Farm Ministry lowered its 2024 soft wheat production forecast from 29.7mmt to 26.3mmt as relentless rains have hurt the harvest-ready crop.

IKAR raised its Russian grain export forecast to 56.2mmt and raised the total grain production to 129.5mmt. That is still below the state’s estimate of 132mmt. 40% of their harvest is completed.

Sovecon lowered its Russian wheat production forecast lower from 84.7mmt to 82.9mmt (USDA 83).

Argentine oilseed workers extended their strike by another day. There are now 36 ships impacted by the strike that have not been able to load out.

Ukraine reported 20.94mmt of wheat has been harvested so far this season, with 97% of the area harvested.

U.S. weather forecasters said there was a 66% chance that La Nina would emerge Sep. through Nov., which typically brings dry weather to S. Brazil and Argentina.

Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Thursday, with prices back at the bottom of the recent range. The downtrend is in place, but the market is oversold. Support is 3.90 and 3.98 with resistance 4.05 and 4.10.

Beans posted lower lows, lower highs, and a new low close on Thursday as the downtrend continues and the market seeks out support. The market is oversold with support at 10.00 and resistance now 10.20-10.30.

Corn dropped to the bottom of its recent range yesterday, with prices expected to find support there as we head into Monday’s numbers from the USDA. Nothing bullish is expected, but the market has priced in a lot of bearishness, with prices low enough to deter production for next year. The downside risk from here is expected to be limited.

Beans dropped to new lows yesterday with the bearish global supply outlook and a lack of demand for U.S. beans from China limiting buying interest. Beans are expected to be the weak leg moving forward with corn needing to find a low before there is much of a chance for beans to rally.

Corn up 1-2

Beans up 6-7