Posted on:
August 7, 2024

Markets are trading mixed overnight, with corn/beans under pressure on a favorable weather outlook while a massive tender that was announced by Egypt is providing support for the wheat market.

Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net sellers of 3k corn to push the net short to 291k, net sellers of 8k beans to push the net short back out to 173k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 69k.

Bloomberg’s survey has the average trade guess for next week’s corn yield at 182.2 bpa (181 last month) and bean yield at 52.5 bpa (52 last month). A full breakdown of estimates will be out later this morning.

Two unions of soybean oil factory workers in Argentina announced a strike over wages yesterday. Bean oil outperformed bean meal after the news, but didn’t provide much support for the soybean market.

The EPA said it had launched investigations into the supply chains of two renewable fuel producers after some had raised concerns that fraudulent feedstocks were being used to secure government subsidies. There has been a surge of used cooking oil imports from Asia that has raised some eyebrows.

Chinese customs data showed its soybean imports for the month of July were up 2.9% from the same period a year ago. Imports through the first seven months of the year are down 1.3% as feed demand remains weak.

Mosaic is the latest ag company to report weak profits, with lower global fertilizer prices weighing.

Corn posted a higher high and higher low on Tuesday, but finished lower and is seeing a further pull-back this morning with prices now lower for the week. The market is range-bound, with directional indicators turning more neutral. Support is 3.90 and 3.98, with resistance 4.05 and 4.10.

Beans traded an inside day on Tuesday, with prices finishing toward the lower end of the daily range and dropping to recent lows this morning. The downtrend is still in place, with room to drop further before it will be oversold. Nov. support is 10.00 and resistance 10.30.

Corn is pulling back again this morning within its recent range. There are no major weather concerns, but a lot of bearishness has already been priced in as well. Look for a sideways trade as we head into Monday’s August crop report.

Beans are pulling back this morning, with favorable bean weather for August and weakness in calendar spreads leading the move. Chinese demand is expected to emerge to provide support on a further pull-back, but there isn’t much to make the beans rally right now either.

Corn down 3-4

Beans down 9-11