Markets traded with small gains overnight, with corn, beans, and wheat recovering within their recent ranges. The Pro Farmer crop tour has not produced any major surprises yet, but some other private groups did show some surprisingly low Illinois yields earlier in the week. Pro Farmer will move into Illinois and Iowa today with the USDA’s current state average of 225 bpa in Illinois under the microscope.

Managed funds on Tuesday were estimated as net sellers of 2k corn to push the net short back out to 249k, net buyers of 1k beans to reduce the net short to 168k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 71k.

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour in Indiana found an average corn yield of 187.54 vs. 180.90 last year. The USDA sees Indiana yield at 207 bpa vs. 203 last year. Pod counts were 1409.02 vs. 1309.96 last year, and the USDA sees Indiana bean yield at 62 bpa vs. 61 last year.

The crop tour estimated Nebraska corn yield at 173.25 bpa vs. 167.22 last year. The USDA has Nebraska corn at 194 bpa vs. 182 last year. Nebraska bean pod counts were 1172.48 vs. 1160.02 last year, and the USDA has Nebraska bean yield at 59 bpa vs. 51.5 last year.

At first glance, the data suggests a big Indiana crop with the USDA potentially a little conservative on yields. Nebraska data would suggest the USDA may be a little too optimistic on their corn/bean yields, but the amount of irrigation in Nebraska always makes it a tricky state to analyze.

Argentina’s corn area this year is expected to drop by 17% on pest and weather concerns as La Nina is expected to return. Russian Ag Minister Oksana Lut said the Russian wheat crop may be smaller than previously forecast.

Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and lower close on Tuesday with prices giving back a small portion of Monday’s gains. The market is still range-bound. Support is 3.92 and resistance is 4.15-4.20.

Beans posted a higher high, higher low, and unchanged close. The market is still correcting from oversold with plenty of room to bounce as it does that. Support is 9.50 and resistance is 9.80.

Corn took a breather on Tuesday after big gains on Monday. he market has priced in a large crop and we are seeing better demand emerge. Look for a range-bound trade in the near term with downside risk from here expected to be limited.

Beans also saw a quieter trade on Tuesday, but it was encouraging that we held onto Monday’s gains, which is something beans have struggled to do. With a big crop priced in and China stepping in as a buyer, a bigger bounce seems possible in the near term.

Corn up 2-3

Beans up 4-6