Mixed trade has overnight gains turning into minor AM losses as China retaliates with more tariffs.

Crude oil is -$3.94/barrel this AM and trades sub-$56/barrel, falling $16.95/barrel since April 2nd.

U.S. dollar is freefalling and holds losses of 750 points / gold and silver are ripping higher by 2-3%.

FAS announced a daily flash of 240,000 MT of U.S. corn to Spain for 2024/25 delivery yesterday.

White House Press Secretary says 104% tariffs went into effect on China and will start to be collected today.

In response to 104% tariffs, China's Finance Ministry raised tariffs on imported U.S. goods from 34% to 84%.

Bipartisan group of U.S. Senators sent a letter to EPA head Lee Zeldin advocating for higher blending volumes of biofuels with other motor fuels; Amy Klobuchar (MN), Chuck Grassley (IA), and Tammy Baldwin (WI), among others. 

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his South American crop estimates unchanged: BRZ corn @ 122.0 MT, BRZ beans @ 169.0MT, ARG corn @ 46.0 MT, and ARG beans @ 48.0 MT.

Porto do Acu in Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil's No. 1 oil export port, are already investing in extra capacity to help resolve trading bottlenecks in agriculture and minerals as China and other buyers shift awaref rom the U.S.

April USDA Crop Report releases tomorrow @ 11:00 a.m. CST

As expected, the U.S. and China are embroiled in a tit-for-tat style trade war with tariffs across the globe taking centerstage. Ag markets initially reacted lower last week amid the chaos though continue to hang in there quite nicely despite the plethora of 'bearish' news. Old crop corn/bean spreads remain firm with new crop contracts lagging. CK25 is +29.5c since March 28th up to the $4.70 area with SK25 looking for a 3rd straight green session and a chart gap to fill near $10.25. CZ25 and SX25 face resistance around the $4.50 and $10.00 marks, respectively. Not only will tariffs keep CBOT volatility elevated but so too will weather volatility, adding yet another level of complexity over the next 100 days. Not only will the U.S. growing season play a role, but close attention will also be paid to dryness concerns in 2nd crop safrinha corn growing regions in across Brazil as well as large parts of Europe and the Black Sea through late May.