Posted on:
April 17, 2025

Markets are trading mixed overnight with corn pulling back within the recent range, beans bouncing within the recent range, and wheat pushing back toward the upper end of its recent range in a quiet trade.

Markets will close today and re-open Sunday night to honor Good Friday.

Export sales for wheat came in at 76.5 tmt (-100-200), n/c wheat 273.9 tmt (0-300), corn 1,561.9 tmt (600-1,800), n/c corn 10 tmt (0-300), beans 554.8 tmt (100-800), n/c beans 181.8 tmt (0-150), meal 146.2 tmt (145-400), n/c meal 8.8 tmt (0-50), oil 10.3 (0-40), and n/c oil 2.2 (0-10).

Sales across the board within the range of expectations.

Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net buyers of 5k corn to push the net long out to 98k, net buyers of 3k beans to reduce the net short to 7k, and net buyers of 2k wheat to reduce the net short to 98k.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production off by 9k bbls per day to 1,012k bbls. Stocks were off by 220k bbls to 26,814k bbls. Weekly production of 298m gallons is below the necessary 305-310m pace needed to hit the USDA’s corn usage forecast.

Argentina harvest continues to lag average pace due to wet weather, but a drier outlook should allow progress to be made. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported early harvest was “better than expected”.  Bean harvest is 5% complete vs. 7.6% on average.

The US..$ finished at a new low price on Wednesday with uncertainty over U.S. trade moving forward weighing relative to competing currencies.

China’s former ag minister is facing bribery charges, following up his arrest last year in Xi’s sweeping anti-graft campaign.

Trump said this morning that he had a “very productive” call with Mexico, the U.S.’ top corn buyer.

Corn traded an inside day on Wednesday with prices finishing with small gains. The market is consolidating as it tries to ease the overbought conditions. Support for May is 4.72 and resistance 4.90.

Beans posted a bullish outside up day on Wednesday with prices bouncing from moving average support to finish with gains. The market is still a bit overbought after the rally from lows a couple weeks ago. Support for May is 10.30 and resistance 10.50.

Corn has seen a consolidative trade over the last few sessions as the market has taken a break after seeing sharp gains to start the month of April. We continue to be in an uncertain trade environment with tight old crop supplies expected to support on pull-backs while expectations for big planted area and trade uncertainty are upside limiting factors for new crop. Producers should look at ways to establish floors on new crop bushels.

Beans have also seen some consolidation this week after seeing sharp gains last week. The trade outlook is very uncertain, global supplies are forecast at record large, and South American crops are flowing into the global market. Alternatively, U.S. new crop area is expected to be small with prices expected to be sensitive to any issues during the U.S. growing season. Producers should look to establish floors on any unsold old crop bushels while better selling opportunities are expected for new crop.

 

Corn down 1

Beans up 1-2