Markets traded mixed overnight, with beans recovering a portion of their large losses on Friday while corn is seeing small losses after Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed funds were much less short than expected.

The USDA will be out on Thursday with their September supply and demand estimates. Expectations for the report will be sent out later this morning.

Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds on the week ending 9/3: funds bought 66k corn to reduce the net short to 176k, net buyers of 22k beans to reduce the net short to 154k, and net buyers of 13k wheat to reduce the net short to 43k. The bean and wheat positions were in line with expectations while the buying in corn was quite a bit larger than expected.

Funds on Friday were estimated as net sellers of 5k corn to push the net short back out to 179k, net sellers of 10k beans to push the net short back out to 156k, and net sellers of 3k wheat to push the net short out to 43k.

China said they would start a one-year anti-dumping probe into imports of Canadian canola in retaliation of electric vehicle tariffs that Canada is expected to impose.

Low river levels in South America are starting to impact navigation along waterways as a drought upriver in Brazil is hindering navigation along waterways in the Amazon.

APK-Inform raised Ukraine’s 2024/25 wheat export forecast to 13.8 mmt (USDA 14). They lowered their corn export forecast by .5 mmt to 22.5 mmt (USDA 24). Poor weather as Ukraine’s wheat harvest progresses is causing quality problems with Ukraine millers seeking curbs on milling wheat exports to prevent a jump in bread prices.

Russia’s IKAR lowered their Russian wheat production forecast by 1.6 mmt to 82.2 mmt (USDA 83) and lowered exports by .5 mmt to 44 mmt (USDA 48).

Corn posted a bearish outside down day on Friday with prices hitting recent highs and then reversing to settle below the previous day’s low. The market is testing support at the 50 DMA this morning as the overbought condition corrects. Support for December is 4.05 and 4.00. Resistance is 4.10-4.20.

Beans posted a bearish outside down day on Friday with the market hitting resistance at the 50 DMA and then reversing hard to finish with large losses. The market is correcting from overbought with support for Nov. at 10.00 and resistance at 10.20-10.30.

Corn is starting out the week under modest pressure after posting large losses on Friday. The near-term outlook is unchanged with a range-bound trade expected. Harvest pressure is expected to limit upside potential while buyers are expected to step in on pullbacks as the U.S. corn balance sheet is tight enough to support current prices.

Beans are catching a bid to start the week, recovering a portion of the large losses we saw on Friday. Dryness concerns in parts of Brazil are supportive, but at the same time, their wet season is just starting. The beans have the weakest fundamentals moving forward and are expected to underperform the corn and wheat markets.

Corn down 1

Beans up 7-8

‍