Markets are trading higher across the board with beans leading the way on another round of economic stimulus announced by China and cease fire talks in Gaza.

Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net buyers of 5k corn to reduce the net short to 129k, net buyers of 8k beans to reduce the net short to 87k, and net buyers of 4k wheat to reduce the net short to 19k.

Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 158.9 tmt (200-600 expected), corn 535.1 tmt (600-1,300), n/c corn 0 (0-50), beans 4,574.7 tmt (900-2,000), n/c beans 0 (0-50), meal -7.9 (-50-100), n/c meal 279.9 tmt (0-50), oil .9 (-4-10), and n/c oil 3.5 (0-16).

Disappointing wheat and corn sales with a solid bean number, although it was expected.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production off 55k bpd to 994k bbls. Stocks were off by 261k bbls to 23,524k bbls.

Russian consultancy IKAR lowered their Russian wheat crop forecast to 81.8 mmt vs. 82.2 mmt previously (USDA 83).

Russia said they were expanding their Baltic Sea port with an aim to increase ag exports by 50% by 2030.

Dryness in Brazil is causing further problems in northern growing areas as low river levels are restricting grain shipping.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said they see Argentine soy output increasing by 3% this year to 52 mmt (USDA 51) while corn production is expected to drop by 5% to 47 mmt. (USDA 51)

Russian winter grain sowing rates are estimated at an 11-year low as dry weather is persisting across their key winter wheat areas.

Corn posted a lower low and lower high on Wednesday, but it did reverse lows from early in the session to finish higher. The market is still range-bound, but prices are testing resistance at the top of the range again. The market is a bit overbought. Support for Dec. is 4.00-4.04 and resistance 4.20-4.30.

Beans posted a lower low and lower high on Wednesday, but the market reversed lows from early in the session to finish with large gains and the highest closing price since 7/25. The market is pushing to new highs this morning, bumping into the top of the up-channel that we have seen develop over the last few weeks. The market is overbought with resistance at 10.60 then 10.80. Support is 10.50, 10.40, and 10.30.

Corn is pushing back up to the top of its recent trading range this morning, struggling to keep pace with the higher bean and wheat markets. The near-term outlook is unchanged with funds expected to be buyers on pull-backs, but harvest pressure is expected to limit gains. Selling pressure is expected to emerge in the 4.20-4.30 area with a range-bound trade expected.

Beans are pushing to new recent highs this morning as China announced more economic stimulus, Brazil continues to run dry, and probably most importantly, there is still a lot of speculative short interest in the market that is caught on the wrong side of the current move. With the global bean fundamental outlook still very bearish, producers should make sure sales are caught up and consider adding more downside protection on any other unpriced bushels.

Corn down 1

Beans up 8-9

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