Markets are trading mixed overnight with another round of lower EU grain production forecasts that are supporting the wheat while corn and beans are leaking lower with harvest picking up across the corn-belt.

Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net sellers of 8k corn pushed the net short out to 127k, net even in the beans to leave the net short at 121k, and net sellers of 4k wheat to push the net short out to 33k.

Coceral lowered total EU and British grain production from 296 mmt to 280.3 mmt on adverse weather throughout the region. They estimated soft wheat production for the area down 10% from last year. They lowered corn production by 4.5 mmt to 60.3 mmt.

French corn was rated 80% g/e, which was up 1% from last week, and down 1% from the same time a year ago.

The Buenos Aires grains exchange reported that some Argentine wheat fields have been abandoned due to lack of rain. However,80% of their wheat is seeing normal to excellent conditions.

Ukraine cut their 2025 winter wheat area forecast to 4.48m ha, which is down from 4.69m previously.

The International Grains Council lowered their 24/25 global wheat production forecast by 1mmt to 798 mmt (USDA 796.9). They lowered the EU wheat crop to 122.4mmt (USDA 124).

Corn posted lower lows, lower highs, and a sharply lower close on Thursday with the market pulling back to test support at the 20 and 50 DMA’s. The market is oversold range-bound with directional indicators balanced. Support for Dec. is 4.00 and resistance 4.20-4.30. Beans traded an inside day on Thursday, finishing with small losses and settling right at the 50 DMA. Directional indicators are neutral with support 10.00 and resistance 10.20-10.30.

Corn has pulled back within its recent range as the market continues to see a mostly sideways trade.  The outlook is unchanged with fund short-covering expected to support the market on pull-backs due to shrinking production ideas while harvest pressure is expected to be an upside limiting factor in the coming weeks. Beans continue to see a sideways trade with the market at the middle of the range that we’ve seen the last few weeks with moving averages converging near current price levels. The outlook is for sideways trade from here as harvest pressure limits the upside and export demand drives short-covering on pull-backs. Beans are expected to underperform corn and wheat moving forward.

Corn down 1

Beans down 3

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