Markets are trading higher overnight with everything recovering a small portion of yesterday’s losses in a quiet, slow-news trade.

Markets started the week under pressure on selling ahead of November first notice day as a lack of new supportive news limited any buying interest.

Managed funds to start the week were estimated as net sellers of 6k corn to push the net short out to 76k, net sellers of 6k beans to push the net short out to 67k, and net sellers of 4k wheat to push the net short to 67k.

Crop progress showed corn harvest 81% (80 expected), bean harvest 89% (91 expected), winter wheat planted 80% (83 expected), and winter wheat rated 38% g/e (47 expected).

Ag Rural estimates Brazil bean planting 36% complete, which is down from 40% at the same time a year ago.

The EU crop monitor lowered their corn yield forecast to 6.66 t/ha from 6.85 t/ha previously. This was the fifth consecutive month where yields have come down.

Ukraine reported planting of winter crops was 90% complete.

Some grain handlers at Australian grain exporter GrainCorp are threatening to go on strike, which threatens to disrupt wheat harvest as it gets underway.

The USDA reported another round of flash sales of corn yesterday morning as the US continues to see an impressive streak of demand, which likely means the USDA’s corn export forecast is underestimated.

Corn gapped open lower to start the week and left the gap open with the market dropping within its recent range. The trend is sideways with directional indicators neutral. Support is 4.10 and 3.99. Resistance is 4.24.

Beans gapped open lower to start the week and finished near the bottom of the recent range. The market is getting to be a bit oversold, but directional indicators are turning more bearish. Support for Nov. is 9.65 and resistance 9.80 and 10.00.

The corn outlook is unchanged with a range-bound trade expected as ongoing harvest is an upside limiting factor while strong demand means there will likely be buyers at the lower end of the trading range. Downside risk from here isn’t that great, but until the market grows concerned about weather during the South American growing season, we also don’t have a catalyst for aggressive buying. Producers can look at re-ownership strategies as the corn balance sheets are tight enough where prices are expected to be sensitive to any weather scares.

Beans were under pressure to start the week with pre-first notice day selling weighing on the November contract. With prices dropping to the bottom of the range again, the market looks to be on the verge of another leg lower as a lack of threatening weather in South America is limiting any buying interest. Beans are expected to be the weakest leg with corn likely needing to find a low to give beans much of a chance of recovering.

Corn up 1

Beans up 1-2

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