Markets are trading mixed overnight with corn and beans continuing their recent recoveries on the back of strong export demand as corn and bean harvest winds down across the country. Wheat is lower in a quiet trade.
Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net buyers of 4k corn to reduce the net short to 64k, net buyers of 4k beans to reduce the net short to 35k, and net buyers of 1k wheat to reduce the net short to 25k.
Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 532.9 tmt (350-650 expected), n/c wheat 0 (0-50), corn 3,602.6 tmt (2,200-3,300), n/c corn 581.2 tmt (500-850), beans 2,151.7 tmt (1,200-2,400), n/c beans 0 (0-100), meal 159.9 tmt (150-350), n/c meal -.2 (0-50), oil 29 (0-30), and n/c oil (0-20).
Huge corn exports, exceeding the top end of the range of expectations. Solid bean sales as we continue to see strong demand at the time of year when most bean business is done. Wheat sales above expectations.
Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production up by 39k bbls per day with weekly production at 318m bbls. Stocks were off by 52k bbls to 22,223k bbls. Weekly production needs to average just under 310m bbls to hit the USDA’s corn usage forecast, so this was an adequate week of production.
The Rosario Exchange said recent rains in Argentina had “turned the game around” for corn and wheat farmers that have been dealing with multiple years of drought. They estimated 2024/25 Argentine corn production at 51-52 mmt (USDA 51), and they see Argentine bean production at 52-53 mmt (USDA 51).
Ukraine analyst APK-Inform said most of Ukraine’s winter crop is under threat due to the slow planting pace that was caused by dry weather early in the fall.
Ukraine analyst ASAP Agri said their canola crop could fall by 20% due to smaller area and poor planting weather.
Germany’s association of farm cooperatives said their 2024 corn crop was up 9.4% on the year at 4.91 mmt.
China’s ag ministry said they would take measure to boost farmers’ income by developing the rural economy, including efforts to spur employment of migrant workers.
The USDA attache in Brazil estimated their bean crop at 161 mmt, which is below the 169 mmt crop the USDA has been using on their monthly S&D forecast.
Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and higher close on Wednesday with the market opening lower, but then finishing higher. The market was able to find support at the 50 and 100 DMA’s with prices back at the middle of the range that we’ve seen for the last couple months. Support for Dec. is 4.00 with the market in the 4.20-4.30 resistance area this morning.
Beans posted a higher high, higher low, and higher close on Wednesday with the market pushing up against resistance at the 50 DMA this morning. The market is overbought after recent gains with directional indicators neutral. Support for Nov. is 9.80 and resistance 10.30.
Corn continues its recovery this morning with harvest pressure easing and the US continuing to find strong export demand. The market is getting into some resistance levels, so the rally may stall, but longer-term US and global corn balance sheets are tight enough where prices will be sensitive to any weather scares with better marketing opportunities expected.
Beans are seeing follow-through to the upside this morning with November able to push through resistance at 10.00 as export demand remains robust. Longer-term, beans still have a supply issue to limit gains, but buyers are having a hard time finding supplies to meet near-term demand right now. Producers should make sure sales are caught up after recent gains.
Corn up 2-4
Beans up 7-12