Markets are trading mixed overnight in a very quiet trade with corn/beans sitting near unchanged while the wheat has pulled back modestly, following moves in Paris wheat futures.

Managed funds to start the week were estimated as net buyers of 6k corn to reduce the net short to 77k, net buyers of 6k beans to reduce the net short to 45k, and net even in the wheat to leave the net short at 28k.

Crop progress showed corn harvest 65% complete (65 expected), bean harvest 81% (81 expected), and wheat planted 73% (77 expected).

The Nov/Jan bean spread returned to recent highs yesterday, which some are attributing to a push to export soybeans ahead of the election and potential tariffs.

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2025 wheat crop at 80-85 mmt, which is up from the USDA’s estimate for 2024 of 82 mmt. Poor conditions for their winter wheat crop ahead of dormancy are leading to reduced crop ideas again for 2025.

Sovecon reported record Russian wheat exports in the month of October with exporters rushing to get grain out of the country before export duties are raised.

The USDA on Monday reported flash sales of 380 tmt of beans and 500 tmt of corn, showing signs that US prices have gotten cheap enough to find demand.

Ukraine reported winter grain sowing 83.5% complete with 3.85m hectares of winter wheat planted, which is up from 3.5m a year ago.

Egypt’s GASC said they hoped to increase imports of French wheat through cooperation with the French ag ministry. French wheat exports have been reduced this year following their worst wheat crop in decades.

Corn posted a bullish outside up day on Monday with prices recovering within the recent range. Most directional indicators are neutral with the market correcting the oversold condition. Support is below the market at 4.00 and resistance 4.20-4.30.

Beans posted a lower low and lower high to start the week, but finished with gains as the market bounced from support near recent lows. The downtrend is in place with the market having corrected the oversold condition. Support for Nov is 9.55 and resistance near 9.80.

Corn started the week off firm as the market hit support at the same time we saw another round of export demand. We are also getting into the later stages of harvest when selling pressure typically eases. The near-term outlook is unchanged with harvest expected to keep a lid on prices, but the current supply and demand outlook would also suggest pull-backs will find buyers with not a lot of downside risk. Heavily sold producers can use pull-backs to re-establish upside exposure.

Beans were able to bounce to start the week as support near recent lows held and we saw an uptick in export business as well. Beans still have the weakest fundamentals moving forward with corn needing to lead a move to the upside. With pre-first notice day selling expected for the next week, beans are expected to struggle to trade higher. Keep hedges in place and hold off on adding any upside exposure for now.

Corn mixed

Beans down 1-2

‍