Markets are trading mostly higher this morning with wheat and beans bouncing modestly after finishing Friday with large losses. Corn continues to see a relatively uneventful range-bound, sideways trade as harvest progresses.

Friday’s CFTC report showed that for the week ending 10/15, managed funds were net sellers of 63k corn to push the net short back out to 87k, net sellers of 19k beans to push the net short out to 40k, and net buyers of 3k wheat to reduce the net short to 26k. The selling in corn was much greater than expected and the buying in wheat made the net short smaller than expected. The bean position was inline with expectations.

Funds on Friday were estimated as net sellers of 4k corn to push the net short out to 83k, net sellers of 11k beans to push the net short out to 51k, and net sellers of 7k wheat to push the net short to 28k.

Ag Rural reported Brazilian bean planting was 18% complete, which was up 10% on the week, but remains well-behind last year’s 30% at this time.

Canola prices in China fell sharply to start the week after Canada said they would drop tariffs on Chinese EV’s. Canola has seen large price swings over the last few months after China threatened retaliation against Canadian goods when the EV tariffs were originally announced.

Friday’s wheat market weakness was related to a better weather outlook for S. Russian winter wheat areas.

Russia is reportedly considering changing they way they sell wheat on the world market as they try to prevent their exporters from selling wheat below $250/metric ton.

Ukraine reported total grain exports thus far through the marketing year at 13 mmt vs. 8.3 mmt at the same time a year ago.

Ukraine’s foreign minister asked for more support to stop intensifying Russian strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure.

China said they would cut their benchmark lending rate as they continue to take measures to stimulate their economy.

Corn posted a higher high and higher low on Friday, but pulled back with prices continuing their mostly sideways trade. The oversold condition has corrected. Support is below the market at 4.00 and resistance 4.20-4.30.

Beans posted a higher high and higher low on Friday, but finished sharply lower. The market is starting to correct the oversold condition with next support near 9.55 and resistance 9.80.

Corn is starting the week in a quiet, range-bound trade. The outlook is unchanged with US harvest expected to be an upside limiting factor for another few weeks while uncertainty about South American crops and a US balance sheet that is tight enough where the market is expected to be sensitive to weather scares means the downside risk from here is likely limited. Producers can look at longer term bullish positions to benefit from a seasonal price recovery after harvest winds down.

Beans finished last week sharply lower, but the inability of the market to make a new low may mean that the downside momentum is waning. Beans are still expected to be the worst performer moving forward, but producers can hold off on establishing new downside protection.

Corn up 1

Beans up 2-4

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