USDA report out at 11 a.m.

Markets are trading mixed overnight with corn, beans, and wheat all three trading within their recent ranges ahead of today’s USDA report, which isn’t expected to show any major changes to US or global balance sheets.

Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net buyers of 4k corn to push the net long to 5k, net buyers of 15k beans to reduce the net short to 35k, and net sellers of 1k wheat to push the net short out to 29k.

Heavy rains across western Europe this fall have delayed wheat sowing and is raising concerns that France could see a similar crop failure to the one they just harvested this year. 62% of their wheat has been planted vs. the 5-year average of 77%. French corn harvest is estimated at 58%.

Bean oil hit the highest levels since July on talks that imports of used cooking oil to feed the expanding US renewable diesel industry may slow in the coming months.

Ukraine’s grain harvest is estimated at 49.9 mmt thus far. Corn production is estimated at 25 mmt (USDA 26.2) and wheat 22 mmt (USDA 22.9).

Estimates for today’s USDA report:

USDA’s baseline numbers were released yesterday afternoon and estimate next year’s corn acres at 92m (90.7 LY) and bean acres 85m (87.1 LY).

China estimated 2024/25 corn imports at 13 mmt (USDA 19) and bean imports of 94.6 mmt (USDA 109).

Corn posted another higher high, higher low, and higher close with the market the highest its been since early Oct. this morning. The market is still range-bound with prices overbought as it tests the top of the range.  Support is 4.24 and resistance 4.30-4.40.

Beans posted a higher high, higher low and sharply higher close on Thursday with the market surging after it took out the high late-October highs. The market is overbought and remains within the range we’ve seen since July.  Jan. support is 10.00 and 9.80 with resistance at 10.30.

Corn looks like it will be trading at the top of its recent range going into today’s USDA numbers. No major surprises are expected with US and global supplies expected to be adequate, but also far from burdensome as we continue to see very strong demand. With the market at the top of the range, producers should make sure sales are caught up.

Beans made a strong push higher on Thursday and are trading near recent highs ahead of today’s USDA numbers. The report is expected to show burdensome supplies with a move higher in beans likely needing to be led by corn. With the market near recent highs ahead of the report, producers should make sure sales are caught up.

Corn up 1-2

Beans down 2-4

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