Markets are trading higher across the board with beans seeing the best gains after the market spiked lower yesterday then recovered into the close as importers rush to lock up supplies before new trade policies can be put in place.

Managed funds on Wednesday were estimated as net buyers of 12k corn to flip the net position to long 1k, net buyers of 5k beans to reduce the net short to 50k, and net buyers of 1k wheat to reduce the net short to 28k.

Export sales this morning for wheat came in at 374.7 tmt (250-550 expected), n/c wheat 0 (0-50), corn 2,766.5 tmt (1,700-2,500), n/c corn 65.5 tmt (0-50), beans 2,037.2 tmt (1,200-2,200), n/c beans 0 (0-100), meal 398.6 tmt (150-500), n/c meal 0 (0-60), oil 114.3 tmt (0-50), and n/c oil 0 (0-10).

Very good corn sales above the top end of the range of estimates while beans and wheat were within the range of expectations.

Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production was up 23k bbls per day to 1,105k bbls with stocks up 249k bbls to 22,020k bbls. Production was well-above the necessary level to hit the USDA’s usage forecast.

Russia said their 2024 total grain harvest would total 130 mmt with wheat production at 83 mmt (USDA 82).

China soybean imports are expected to hit record levels in 2024 as their buyers rush to stockpile supplies before any changes can be made to trade.

Ukraine said they would meet their winter grain sowing target for 2025 production despite difficult weather conditions.

The US dollar surged to the highest level since mid-summer on Wednesday. The strength weighed on commodities in early trade, but losses in agriculture markets had been reversed by the close.

Corn posted a higher high, higher low, and highest close since the beginning of October on Wednesday with the market at the top of the recent range this morning. The market is overbought after recent gains and is bumping into resistance.  The trend is sideways with support 4.24 and 4.10 with resistance 4.30-4.40.

Beans spiked lower on Wednesday, but then posted a bullish outside up day while also putting in a potential head and shoulders bottom. The market is overbought after recent gains. Resistance is 10.20-10.30 and support is 10.00.

Corn is hitting recent highs this morning with the weight of a lower bean market lifted, for now, as the US continues to see very strong demand across the board. The rally may slow as we hit resistance levels, but longer term, US and global balance sheets are tight enough where better selling opportunities are likely.

Beans initially reacted negatively to the election results as the potential for a trade war increased, but the market has found good buying since then as the US may see a surge of export demand before any changes in trade policy can be put in place. While the knee jerk reactions aren’t a surprise around the election, at the end of the day, the US and global bean supply outlook is bearish regardless of any policy changes with a massive crop failure in South America the only thing that could change that. Producers should make sure sales are caught up and can look at adding downside protection on un-sold beans.

Corn mixed

Beans up 8-10

‍