Markets are trading mixed overnight with spreaders buying beans and selling wheat after Black Sea tensions over the weekend were subdued. December first notice day is Friday, which means we could see a choppy trade this week as longs in the December contract are sold or rolled to avoid delivery.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed funds for the week ending 11/19 were net buyers of 5k corn to push the net long out to 115k, net sellers of 13k beans to push the net short out to 68k, and net sellers of 6k wheat to push the net short to 52k. Corn and bean positions were near expectations while the selling in wheat was larger than expected.
Funds on Friday were estimated as net sellers of 2k corn to reduce the net long to 111k, net buyers of 4k beans to reduce the net short to 77k, and net sellers of 3k wheat to push the net short out to 55k.
Russian consultancy IKAR raised its forecast for Russia’s 2024 grain crop by .5 mmt to 125 mmt.
AgRural reported Brazilian soybean planting at 86% complete, which is up from 74% a year ago.
The US dollar is trading sharply lower to start the week with markets reacting to Trump’s choice for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
The IGC lowered their global wheat production forecast by 2mmt to 796 mmt (USDA 794.73).
Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Friday with the market seeing follow-through selling this morning as the market pulls back within its recent range. Directional indicators are neutral. Support for March is at 4.30 and 4.25 with resistance 4.40.
Beans posted a bullish reversal from lows on Friday with the market dropping to new recent lows and then finishing higher. The market gapped higher overnight but remains in the lower end of its recent range. The repeated tests of the bottom of the range suggest a weak outlook. Support is near 9.80 and resistance 10.00.
Corn is pulling back to start the week with prices dropping back within their recent range. News is limited with no change to the outlook. Demand is strong with buyers expected to step in on pull-backs, but supply is also adequate with room for US demand to increase by as much as 400 mbu without making US supplies overly tight. Look for the range-trade to continue.
Beans bounced on Friday and are seeing follow-through buying to start the week, but prices remain in the lower end of their recent range with no major production concerns in South America. Beans still have the weakest outlook moving forward with global supplies on track to reach burdensome levels. Producers should buy puts on unpriced production.
Corn down 2-3
Beans up 4-6