Markets are trading mixed this morning. Beans tried to bounce again last night, but they are sitting near recent lows this morning. Corn and wheat are quiet with corn potentially headed for the 4.30 strike and wheat the 5.50 strike for option expiration today.
Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net sellers of 6k corn to drop the net long to 103k, net sellers of 8k beans to push the net short out to 76k, and net sellers of 2k wheat to push the net short out to 46k.
Australia wheat harvest is getting underway with early western Australian yields strong. The current govt. estimate for their wheat production is 31.8 mmt (USDA 32).
French corn harvest is estimated 82% complete, which remains behind average. Wheat planting is 90% complete vs. 73% a year ago.
Russia/Ukraine tensions remain elevated with Russia saying they had launched a hypersonic missile at a Ukrainian city. No new damage has been reported for grain facilities.
Argentina reported bean planting was 36% complete, which was up from 20% a week ago.
The IGC lowered their global wheat production forecast by 2 mmt to 795 mmt, which is in line with the USDA forecast of 794.73 mmt.
Corn pulled back on Thursday with prices dropping within the recent range. Directional indicators are neutral with the market correcting from overbought. Support is 4.20 and resistance 4.30.
Beans posted lower lows, lower highs, and a new low close for the recent move with prices at the bottom of the range that we’ve seen since late summer. Repeated tests of support at the bottom of the range suggest an eventual push to new lows. Support is near 9.80 and resistance 10.00.
The corn outlook is unchanged with a range-bound trade expected. Demand is very good with the USDA likely to raise their usage forecast at some point, but supply is very good too with room for demand to rise without supplies getting overly tight. Look for the sideways range to continue.
Beans dropped to new recent lows yesterday as a lack of weather concerns in South America and aggressive offers out of Brazil in early 2025 are weighing. With repeated tests of the bottom of the trading range, look for the market to eventually push through to the downside.
Corn up 2-3
Beans up 1-4