Markets are trading higher across the board to start the month of November in a pretty quiet post-Halloween trade with no major headlines driving price action this morning.

Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net sellers of 2k corn to push the net short out to 78k, net buyers of 2k beans to reduce the net short to 63k, and net sellers of 1k wheat to push the net short out to 30k.

Ukraine said grain harvest was 91.2% complete with 22.3 mmt of wheat and 18.3 mmt of corn harvested thus far. They forecast total corn production at 25 mmt (USDA 26.2) and wheat production 22 mmt (USDA 22.9).

The European Commission lowered their EU wheat production forecast to 112.6 mmt, which was down 2 mmt from a month ago and down 10% YOY.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said Argentine corn area could come in high due to fewer leafhopper insects plaguing corn areas. They estimated Argentine corn planting 35% complete with the crop estimated at 47 mmt (USDA 51).  They said bean planting was 3% complete and wheat harvest 8%.  They estimate wheat production at 18.6 mmt (USDA 18).

Global grain traders are showing frustration with Russia as their attempts to restrict grain exports are causing confusion in global markets.

USDA soy crush for September will be out after the close with 187.4 mbu expected to have been crushed.

Corn posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Thursday with the market remaining very much range-bound. Support is 4.10 and 3.99. Resistance is 4.24.

Beans posted higher highs, higher lows, and a higher close on Thursday, seeing nice follow-through buying after Wednesday’s key reversal with more follow-through overnight. The market is well-balanced. Support for January is 9.80 and resistance near 10.00.

No changes to the corn outlook with a range-bound trade expected in the near term as supplies are viewed as adequate for now. Longer term, US and global supplies are low enough where prices will be sensitive to any weather scares. Producers need to be prepared to sell into weather rallies if they materialize, but we are likely still a month away from trading any South American weather.

Beans have seen a nice move higher since reversing from lows on Wednesday morning. The price outlook is still challenging with US and global supplies forecast at burdensome levels with no major weather concerns in South America right now. Producers can look at adding downside protection after the small price recovery we’ve seen this week.

Corn up 2

Beans up 7

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