Markets are trading mixed to higher overnight in another quiet trade with all markets able to hang onto the sizable gains that we saw on Thursday.
Managed funds on Thursday were estimated as net buyers of 8k corn to push the net long to 108k, net buyers of 6k beans to reduce the net short to 74k, and net buyers of 4k wheat to reduce the net short to 59k.
Russia said they would raise their wheat export duty by 32%, which should do the job of significantly slowing their exports. This has been expected at some point following their short crop last year.
French wheat ratings were down 1% on the week to 86% g/e.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised their estimate of the Argentine wheat crop to 18.6mmt (USDA 17.5). Argentine wheat harvest is estimated 50% complete.
The UN world food index hit the highest level since April 2023, driven by surging vegoil prices. Cereal prices were actually down 2.7% from the prior month.
Argus Media estimated Ukraine’s 2025 wheat crop at 23.7 mmt (USDA 22.9 last year) and Russia’s wheat crop at 81.5 mmt (USDA 81.5 last year).
Corn posted a bullish outside up day on Thursday with prices trading back into the upper end of the recent range. Directional indicators are still neutral. Support is 4.23 and resistance 4.42.
Beans posted a higher high, higher low, and higher close on Thursday with prices bouncing from the 9.80 area again to finish with gains. The market is hitting moving average resistance this morning and despite yesterday’s higher trade, remains in the lower end of its range. Support for Jan. is near 9.80 and resistance 10.09.
Corn saw nice gains on Thursday with prices recovering from the lower end of the recent range to trade into the upper end of the range. The outlook is unchanged with strong demand offset by comfortable supplies, which is expected to keep the range-trade in place for now. Wait for prices to recover further within the range before making more sales.
Beans also were able to bounce from support on Thursday, but prices remain in the lower end of their range with the global supply outlook still bearish. Producers can use puts to protect downside risk.
Corn up 1-2
Beans up 1-2