Markets catching a bid this morning with wheat and beans able to take out yesterday’s highs while the corn market is pushing up against yesterday’s high. News continues to be pretty slow with no major weather problems in South America at this time.

The weekly CFTC report showed that for the week ending 11/26, managed funds were net sellers of 17k corn to reduce the net long to 97k, net sellers of 14k beans to push the net short to 81k, and net sellers of 8k wheat to push the net short out to 59k. Positions were in line with expectations across the board.

Managed funds to start the week were estimated as net even in the corn to leave the net long at 104k, net sellers of 3k beans to push the net short out to 79k, and even in the wheat to leave the net short at 64k.

Brazil based analyst Celeres said their bean crop could be 170.8 mmt while Stone X estimated the crop at 166.2 mmt. USDA’s current forecast is 169 mmt.

The Rosario Grains Exchange said much-needed moisture has arrived in Argentina. They estimated the Argentine bean crop at 53-53.5 mmt (USDA 51), and the Argentine corn crop at 50-51 mmt (USDA 51). They estimated wheat production at 18.8 mmt (USDA 17.5).

India said they expected above normal temperatures during their winter season, which will put their winter wheat yields at risk. Wheat prices in India are already at record highs with government supplies drawn down after multiple years of short crops.

Corn posted a higher high and higher low on Monday, but pulled back into the close to finish with losses. The market is still range-bound and lacking of a trend. Support for March is  4.23 with resistance 4.42.

Beans posted a lower low, lower high, and lower close on Monday, but the market did recover from intraday lows to close above key support at 9.80. The market still has a bearish bias with potential for a larger move to the downside if prices dip below 9.80 and don’t recover.  Support for Jan. is near 9.80 and resistance 10.09.

Corn is bouncing within its recent range overnight as market moving news continues to be limited. The outlook for a sideways trade is unchanged with strong demand offset by large supplies.  With the market in the lower portion of the recent range, be patient with any sales.

Beans are catching a bid overnight with prices pushing to the upper end of the range that we’ve seen for the last 8 trading days. The forecast is a bit drier in Argentina and the managed fund position in soymeal is overweight. Beyond that, the bean outlook remains challenging with global supplies forecast at burdensome levels.  Producers can look at puts to protect unsold bushels.

Corn up 2

Beans up 9-11

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