Markets trading mostly lower overnight with corn and beans near the middle of their recent ranges while wheat is lingering near lows.  Weather in South American continues to be pretty favorable with large South American production estimates offsetting the strong demand we continue to see for U.S. corn and beans.

The weekly CFTC report will be out after the close today due to last week’s holiday.

Managed funds on Friday were estimated as net buyers of 7k corn to push the net long to 108k, net buyers of 1k beans to reduce the net short to 70k, and net sellers of 1k wheat to push the net short to 64k.

ABARE raised their Australian wheat production forecast by 100 tmt to 31.9 mmt (USDA 32) with strong yields expected.

India has planted wheat on 20m hectares, which is up 6.6% from a year ago. The Indian government is hopeful that larger production can temper prices, which hit all-time record highs last week.

Ukraine introduced a new system for exports that would ban exports at prices below levels set by the agriculture ministry.

Russia said they would export 1.5 mmt of wheat to Morocco in the coming years after signing a deal with the Moroccan grain traders’ association.

Russia cut its 2025 wheat export quota by two-thirds and raised wheat export duties in an effort to curb inflation in Russia.

China reported a 3.2% drop in their sow herd at the end of October from a year ago. Hog slaughter for the first ten months of the year was down 2.6%.

Ag Rural reported Brazil bean planting was 91% complete.

Corn posted a bullish outside up day on Friday with prices recovering from lows to finish with nice gains. The market is correcting from oversold with directional indicators still neutral.  Support for March is 4.23 with resistance 4.42.

Beans traded an outside day on Friday with prices finishing near the middle of the day’s range with a small gain. The market has corrected from oversold with prices still in the lower end of the range that we’ve seen the last several months. Support for Jan. is near 9.80 and resistance 10.09.

Corn is giving back a small portion of the gains that we saw to finish last week as we continue to see a range-bound trade. There is no change to the longer-term outlook with strong demand expected to be offset by adequate supplies.  Wait to sell until the market gets to the upper end of the range.

Beans are giving back Friday’s gains that came on the heels of a very solid weekly export report that was followed by a large flash sale at 8 am on Friday morning. The market struggled to rally on the news, however, as often times exports get priced in before they are announced. Regardless, the bearish outlook for beans remains in place as long as weather in South America remains favorable, which it is for now. Unless corn can trade higher and lead a move to the upside, there is risk that beans will drop to new lows on growing global supplies. Producers should keep puts in place to protect their downside exposure.
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Corn down 2

Beans down 4-6

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